Blog Archives

Information dissipation as an early warning signal

The theoretical underpinnings of bifurcations and phase transitions in finance have been around for many years. In the 1970s, the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory became a popular field of research, as it provided one of the first formalizations that

Posted in Bubbles and Crashes Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The future of forecasting in financial markets

My article on “The Future of Financial Market Forecasting” is to be published in the forthcoming issue of Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. This journal is something of a link between the academic and business communities. There is also an

Posted in Book Two: Twenty-Four Trading Strategies Based on Scientific Findings About Technical Analysis, Bubbles and Crashes, scientific understanding of financial markets Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Nobel Prize U.S. winner warns of ‘bubbly’ global home prices

One of three American economists who won the 2013 economics Nobel prize on Monday for research into market prices and asset bubbles expressed alarm at the rapid rise in global housing prices. Robert Shiller, who shared the 8 million Swedish

Posted in Bubbles and Crashes Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Log periodic signature associated with bubbles and crashes.

Johansen, Sornette, and Ledoit (1999) and Johansen, Ledoit, and Sornette (2000), all from UCLA at that time, argued that financial bubbles and crashes exhibited unique mathematical signatures known as log-periodic oscillations. This refers to a sequence of oscillations with progressively

Posted in Bubbles and Crashes Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Book Three: Trading With The News

Learn about a news-based trading system that yielded a back-tested, average annualized, compounded return from 2000 to 2011 of 58.6%.

“Only once you’ve done your homework will you be able to understand how the stock market works and learn to distinguish between news and noise.” Maria Bartiromo, Use The News

Book Two: Technical Analysis

Learn about the "trend recalling" algorithm that yielded researchers a simulated annual return of greater than 400% in multiple tests.

“The scientific method is the only rational way to extract useful knowledge from market data and the only rational approach for determining which technical analysis methods have predictive power.”
David Aronson, Evidence Based Technical Analysis

Book One: Analysts’ Forecasts

Learn the strategy, based on analysts' revised forecasts, that yielded researchers an average of 1.13% - 2.19% profit per trade, for trades lasting one to two days?

Learn how certain analysts' recommendations, following brokerage hosted investment conferences, yielded profits of over 3% during a two-day holding period?

Learn how researchers found an average profitability of 1.78% for two-hour trades following an earnings announcement?

"This set of tools can help both ordinary and professional investors alike to re-think and re-vitalize their stock picking, timing and methods. A young, aspiring Warren Buffet could put this book to good use."
James P. Driscoll, PhD, investor

Statistically Sound Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading of Financial Instruments by David Aronson (software included)

Evidence-Based Technical Analysis by David Aronson

Archive of Earlier Posts